Estimating the economic and distributional impacts of the regional comprehensive economic partnership

This paper applies a top-down, macro-micro modeling framework that links a computable general equilibrium model with the survey-based global income distribution dynamics model to assess the economic and distributional effects of the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Reductions of tariffs and non-tariff measures, implementation of a rule of origin, together with productivity gains stemming from trade cost reductions can strengthen regional trade and value chains among Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership members. The results of the analysis indicate that in an already deeply integrated region, tariff liberalization alone brings little benefit, with estimated real income gains of 0.21 percent relative to the baseline (without the RCEP) in 2035. With liberal rules of origin, the gains in real income could double to 0.49 percent. The biggest benefits accrue when the productivity gains are considered, increasing real income by as much as 2.5 percent for the trade bloc. In this scenario, trade among RCEP members increases by 12.3 percent in 2035 relative to the baseline. The RCEP also has the potential to lift 27 million additional people to middle-class status by 2035. It will also boost wages, with faster gains in sectors that employ larger shares of women. The aggregate effects mask large variety of outcomes across countries, with Vietnam expected to register the highest trade and income gains. Implementation of the RCEP help partially mitigate the negative economic impacts of COVID-19 in the East Asia and the Pacific region.

Pandemic, climate mitigation, and reshoring: impacts of a changing global economy on trade, incomes, and poverty

The resilience of global value chains has been put to the test by the COVID-19 pandemic, extreme weather events, and trade tensions spurred by growing economic nationalism and protectionism. Shocks in production and trade can be transmitted from one country to another by global value chains, although they can also help to lessen the blow of a domestic shock, such as a lockdown, and drive economic recovery. What shocks to global value chains should be anticipated in the coming years Is it possible to design policies that can enhance resilience to trade shocks in developing countries without endangering growth This paper explores simulations from the ENVISAGE global computable general equilibrium model to enhance understanding of the potential longer-term impacts of COVID-19 and the policy responses it engenders in developing countries. The paper assesses the likely impacts of measures designed to reshore production and reduce reliance on imports. It also evaluates other key factors shaping the global economy, including stylized scenarios to capture the essential elements of policies to achieve carbon emission reductions that will have an impact on trade.